以下のFinancial Times の引用にもあるように、世界のトップ・ファイナンシャル・リーダー達は、「低金利政策だけでは、脆弱な世界経済を安定的な成長へ導く解決策にならない」と警告している。
【以下、Financial Times からの引用】
G20 top nations warn against reliance on low interest rates
Finance chiefs call for broader solution to balanced growth in global economy
APRIL 15, 2016
China posted encouraging growth figures on Friday © AFP
APRIL 16, 2016 by: Chris Giles in Washington
The world’s top financial leaders have warned that low interest rates alone were not the solution to returning the fragile global economy to stable growth.
After China posted encouraging economic growth figures, finance ministers and central bank governors from the G20 leading economies praised signs of “sunshine” in parts of the global economy.
But their main focus at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund was on the chill winds threatening to blow growth off course after a turbulent start to the year.
In a series of potential obstacles, they cited weak productivity, the lack of further firepower from monetary policy, China’s difficulties in rebalancing its economy, strains in oil exporters, disorderly capital flows, a continued impasse in talks over lending conditions to Greece and Britain’s potential exit from the EU.
“Growth remains modest and uneven, and downside risks and uncertainties to the global outlook persist against the backdrop of continued financial volatility, challenges faced by commodity exporters and low inflation,” the G20 communiqué said.
Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary, said no country should rely too heavily on any single policy tool to bolster growth, adding that monetary policy alone would not generate the balanced growth Europe needs.
“All major economies need to deploy a full toolkit of economic policy measures, including monetary and fiscal policies and structural reforms, to address weak demand, boost employment and raise standards of living,” he said. “While the US economy is on a solid path, the global recovery remains uneven and downside risks have become more pronounced due in large part to a continued shortfall in aggregate demand.”
George Osborne, Britain’s chancellor said: “It’s fair to say there’s a fairly anxious mood around the various tables here about the state of the global economy.”
With an increasing number of countries shifting to negative interest rates in a bid to boost demand, the
G20 said monetary policy could not by itself provide a return to balanced growth.
The IMF’s preferred solution was a three-pronged response of reforms that boost employment and productivity, low interest rates and less austerity in countries that can afford it.
China, a prime engine of global growth, is acknowledged internationally as one of the few large economies that has acted on all fronts. The 6.7 per cent annual growth rate it posted for the first quarter of 2016 on Friday was comfortably within the government’s targeted range.
Less encouraging for the rest of the world was that Beijing averted a deeper slowdown by encouraging growth in housing and infrastructure, which cushioned a slowdown in financial services.
Changyong Rhee, the Asia director of the IMF, welcomed the improved Chinese outlook since the start of the year but warned that “unless this stimulus is implemented widely and does not just rely on boosting the ‘old engines’ of growth, the medium term risks of ever-rising credit and investment will increase”.
The cautious sentiment was not helped by further signs of fragility in the US economy where official figures showed industrial production fell again in March, leaving production 2 per cent lower than a year earlier.
In Europe, there is concern that growth is still too slow to lower unemployment significantly or raise the inflation rate much from zero. These fears and amplified by unease over Britain’s referendum on membership of the EU in June, which finance ministers are becoming to believe is more likely than they previously thought.
he G20 again warned that Brexit would be a “shock” and complicated the global outlook further.
Additional reporting by Sam Fleming