欧州中央銀行会見のいくえ

ユーロ圏の金融当局がより踏み込んだ積極的行動に移る兆候を期待していただけに、投資家はECB(欧州中央銀行)の会見に失望を隠せない。

ユーロは3月以来の最高水準まで上昇し、株式市場は下落。

ECBの資産買い入れ計画がインフレ上昇と景気回復に十分でないとの懸念が広がり、欧州株式市場は15ヶ月以上ぶりの急落となった。

 

投資家は一転して連邦準備委員会と米国DGP、そして日銀の動きに注目を写した。

 

エコノミストは、来週の会議で連邦準備委員会が政策金利を変更しないことを期待し、一方投資家は、次の利上げのタイミングを判断しようとし、現在の経済状況やグローバルリスクに関する言外の変化を読み取ろうとしている。(Bloomberg の資産によると6月の利上げの可能性は23%である)

一方、日銀は市中銀行を救済するため、融資のマイナス金利を今週の会議で報告する旨を公表し、先週金曜日の円にお大きなインパクトを与えた。

 

先週、金曜日の為替は円安、株式市場も活発化はしているが、実体経済にいつどのように反映するのか、日本経済の正念場である。

 

【以下、Financial Times からの引用】

 

© Bloomberg

 

Week ahead: Fed, US GDP, BoJ

APRIL 23, 2016 by: Mamta Badkar

With the European Central Bank’s meeting in the rear view mirror, investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Here’s what to watch for in the coming days.

Federal Reserve

Economists expect the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged when it meets next week. Investors will instead watch for changes in the language regarding current economic conditions, global risks and commentary on recent data as they try to determine the timing of the next rate rise.

“We believe the meeting on April 29th will prove to be a ‘place-holder’,” according to economists at Bank of America. “However, we do expect small tweaks to the language, specifically noting that global economic and financial risks have abated somewhat,” they said.

The implied odds of the Fed adding to its December rate increase in June now stand at just 23 per cent, according to Bloomberg calculations of fed funds futures data.

Bank of Japan

On Thursday, attention shifts to the Bank of Japan. Reports that the BoJ, which introduced negative interest rates in January, could announce measures to aid banks by offering negative rates on some loans at its meeting next week weighed heavily on the yen on Friday.

“Faced with downgrades to growth, inflation, the recent earthquakes and discomfort with the currency, the BoJ will have enough cover to deliver a token ease likely in the form of a doubling of ETFs purchases though there is a nontrivial risk this is accompanied with rate relief in its loan support program,” said Robert Both, strategist at TD Securities.

 

 

 

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