世界経済の焦点の変化

20日、仙台市で主要7カ国(G7)財務相・中央銀行総裁会議が開幕した。世界経済については「中国を含め過度な悲観論はやや後退した」との認識を共有した。

また、国際通貨基金(IMF)は4月に中国の2016年の実質経済成長率を1月時点の6.3%から6.5%に0.2ポイント上方修正している。

投資家の焦点は、新興国、産油国の成長鈍化、原油安から、①ギリシャへの救済ローンの再開、②伊勢志摩サミット、③米国のGDP、へと方向を変えている。特に仙台での会議では英国のEU離脱問題が最優先課題と認識された。

【以下、Financial Times からの引用】

Week ahead: US GDP, G7 summit, Greece

MAY 21, 2016 by: Mamta Badkar

The timing of the next rate rise dominated markets this week and next week attention turns overseas as investors focus on Greece and the G7 summit.

Here’s what to expect in the coming days:

Greece

Greece returns to the headlines this week as attention turns to a parliamentary vote on bailout reforms on Sunday — that includes draft legislation on tax increases and the establishment of a privatisation fund.

The vote comes ahead of a meeting of euro-area finance ministers on Tuesday, in which policymakers will determine whether Athens qualifies for bailout loans.

G7 summit

Leaders of the Group of 7 nations gather in Ise-Shima, Japan on Thursday to discuss the global economy, investment, trade, the refugee crisis, climate change and gender equality. Markets will watch for any commitments made to strengthen policy responses to global economic uncertainty.

“Key elements of the official communiqué may remain unchanged from last year’s edition, but we could see some shift in favour of fiscal policies to support growth,” James Rossiter, senior global strategist at TD Securities, said. “Japan would be a key beneficiary of this while the German delegation may offer some resistance.”

Janet Yellen

Investors who are reassessing the timing of the next rate rise by the Federal Reserve will tune in to hear the latest from Fed chair Janet Yellen, who is slated to speak with Harvard professor Gregory Mankiw in Massachusetts on Friday.

Ms Yellen’s conversation follows the release of hawkish minutes from the Fed’s April monetary policy meeting and New York Fed president Bill Dudley’s statement that the June meeting is “live”.

The list of Fed officials speaking next week also includes James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed and Fed governor Jerome Powell, both members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

US GDP

Investors await an update on the health of the US economy when the second reading of first-quarter GDP is published on Friday. Economists expect the economy grew 0.8 per cent in the first three months of the year, from an initial 0.5 per cent print.

Investors also await the latest readings on sales of newly built homes, durable goods orders and international trade.

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