イエレン議長、追加利上げに言及せず加熱的な経済を容認

October 17, 2016

米連邦準備理事会(FRB)のイエレン議長は14日、米ボストン連銀主催の会議で講演し、力強い需要と引き締まった労働市場を伴う「経済状況」が2008年の金融危機から続く生産活動(供給)を反転させることが可能だと指摘した。現在の米国の過熱気味の経済状況を容認する姿勢を示している。

 

  先進国の経済活動が金融危機前の水準を回復できていないことについて「総需要の変化が供給側(潜在成長率)に根強い影響を与えている」と指摘した。古典派経済学では一般的には供給サイドの要因が総需要の水準を決めると考えられているが、イエレン議長は「加熱的な経済状況」が企業業績を改善し、労働市場の逼迫が潜在的な労働力を(市場に)引き込むことにつながる」と語った。さらに総需要が強まると「企業は研究開発費を増やし、新しく革新的な事業を始めるインセンティブが生まれる」ことも生産性の向上につながる

との見方を示した。

14日、米ボストン連銀主催の会議で講演するイエレンFRB議長=ロイター

 

 

 講演では追加利上げの時期など目先の金融政策への言及はなく、現在の過熱気味の経済の容認を強調した。

 米国の利上げは不要という話にも聞こえる。11月の大統領選、12月の利上げ、米国経済はまさに踊り場である。

 

【以下のFinancial Times参照】

Yellen says swift action needed during periods of upheaval

Fed chair says monetary and fiscal policymakers must act quickly when a recession hits

OCTOBER 15, 2016 

by: Sam Fleming in Washington

 

The danger that serious downturns do lasting damage to an economy means policymakers need to act “aggressively” when responding to a major setback, theFederal Reserve chair said as she called for more research into a host of economic conundrums dogging central bankers around the world.

Janet Yellen said poor economic performances since the financial crisis suggested that a plunge in demand could have a persistent effect on the supply capacity of an economy.

Citing research showing that US potential output is 7 per cent below what might have been expected based on its pre-crisis trajectory, she told a conference that it was crucial for monetary and fiscal policymakers to act quickly when a recession hits.

“If strong economic conditions can partially reverse supply-side damage after it has occurred, then policymakers may want to aim at being more accommodative during recoveries than would be called for under the traditional view that supply is largely independent of demand,” she added in the conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Ms Yellen’s argument came as the Fed pursues an ultra-gradual approach to removing monetary policy support in the US amid a sluggish recovery. She did not address immediate rate-setting issues in her speech, instead raising a series of questions that she said economists needed to dig more deeply into as they try to improve their understanding of the world after the crisis.

Ms Yellen said that it was sensible to ask whether running a “high-pressure economy” with robust demand might reverse damage to an economy’s supply side, for example, by boosting corporate sales and therefore encouraging investment, or by pulling individuals off the sidelines and into the labour force.

Among the other questions Ms Yellen raised was how to account for the fact that differences between the circumstances of individuals or companies in an economy can influence overall outcomes, challenging economists’ models incorporating a single “representative” agent.

For example, in an assessment of the impact of a housing downturn on spending, some households might curb spending more severely than others if they are driven into negative equity. Employment at small firms might be hit harder than at large ones at a time when banks are trimming lending, as they did during the crisis.

Ms Yellen also said the economics world needed a stronger understanding of how the financial sector interacts with the broad economy — a lesson economists have been vowing to learn since the banking meltdown of 2007-09 but that continues to haunt them. The Fed chair asked, for example, whether the persistently high saving rate since the crisis was a result of tougher lending standards by banks and other lenders.

Central bankers are also struggling to get their heads around the factors that drive inflation. The links between the health of the labour market and price growth are particularly relevant to the Fed right now.

Similarly, the Fed is grappling with how inflation expectations are shaped, amid weak readings in some surveys and market measures. And the Fed is also attempting to better account for the ways in which changes in its monetary policy ricochet around the world, ultimately feeding back into conditions in the US.

“Extreme economic events have often challenged existing views of how the economy works and exposed shortcomings in the collective knowledge of economists,” Ms Yellen said.

“Pursuing answers to these questions is vital to the work of Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers, and the Fed is likewise engaged in ongoing research to seek answers.”

 

 

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