イギリスの経済成長〜ビジネス投資は、Brexitの投票後の英国経済成長を促す〜

November 28, 2016

しばらくは米国大統領選に焦点が注がれていたが、世界経済を牽引する影の存在、英国の経済に注視してみる。

 

 

 多くの投資決定はEUの国民投票の前に行われたが、拡大は予測を上回るものであった。

 国家統計局が公表した詳細によると、EUの国民投票後3カ月でイギリスの経済成長率は予想を上回った。

 

 事業投資額は、前3ヶ月に比べて2016年第3四半期に0.9%増加した。一方、世論調査による予想では1%減少していた。

 

 事業投資は、英国経済がBrexitの投票によってどのように影響されるかが議論の中心であり、経済学者は、将来の貿易動向についての不透明感のために企業は投資を遅らせると予想している。第3四半期について言えばこのことの証明にはならなかった。

 

 ONS(国民統計局)のGDPの責任者ダレン・モルガン(Darren Morgan)は、「EU離脱の国民投票直後は、事業による投資は好調だったが、投資判断の大半は投票日前に行われたと思われる。」と発言している。

 

 モルガン氏はまた、「家計収入の上昇や支配的なサービス業の好調な業績に支えられ、消費者支出の増加に伴う企業の設備投資は、経済を歴史的平均に沿って広く拡大しています。」と付け加えている。

 

 金曜日には「GDP成長率は、0.5%の初期見通しからいずれの方向にも修正されていないし、事業投資は、建物、機械設備、知的財産などの新しい非金融資産の創出を対象としています。」と発表されている

 

 Commerz銀行の英国のエコノミスト、ピーター・ディクソン氏は、「国民投票の前の不確実性指標とその直後には、企業が少し後退する可能性のある不確実性を指摘していた」と述べた。しかし、企業は投資判断を調整するのに時間がかかるため、勝利を宣言するのは早すぎると付け加えた。

 

水曜日、英国政府の独立した予測を作成する予算責任局は、事業投資の削減により、2018年までに郡の長期経済潜在力が1.1%低下すると発表した。これは、離脱派の政治家が、「別の完全な運命と暗闇のシナリオ」をOBRが作り出していると非難し、その予想を無駄と呼んだ。

 

OBRのディフェンダーは、その予測の多くが、財務省を含む他の機関によって作られた予測よりもはるかにポジティブであったことを指摘して反撃した。

 

第3四半期のGDPの伸び率は、家計消費が0.7%増加し、政府消費が0.4%増加し、英国の貿易赤字が前四半期に比べて若干縮小したことで説明された。

 

しかし、貿易収支の改善は、英国の世帯や企業が他の財やサービスと貿易するよりもむしろ金の金額が大きく変動したことによるものであった。

 

これはGDPの非常に変化しやすい部分であり、経済におけるファンダメンタルの変化に影響する可能性は低い。

 

従業員報酬 - 賃金、年金、拠出金および現物支払い - は0.7%増加し、インフレのために調整されていない。これは所得の伸びに最大の貢献をした。企業収益は0.2%増加した。

 

同じ日に公表されたサービスのインデックスは、最近の動向に追随していた。英国の経済的成果の約80%をサービスが占めている。

 

【以下、Financial Times からの引用】

 

UK economic growth 

 

Business investment boosts UK economic growth after Brexit vote

Expansion beats forecasts though many decisions were taken before EU referendum

 

NOVEMBER 25, 2016 

by: Gavin Jackson

 

Better than expected business investment and consumer spending drove UK economic growth in the three months following the EU referendum, according to detailed figures published by the Office for National Statistics.

Business investment increased 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2016 compared with the previous three months, instead of a consensus prediction of a 1 per cent decline.

Business investment has been at the centre of the debates about how the UK economy will be affected by the Brexit vote, with economists expecting companies to slow their investment because of uncertainty about future trade arrangements. There was no evidence of this in the third quarter, however.

“Investment by businesses held up well in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum, though it’s likely most of those investment decisions were taken before polling day,” said Darren Morgan, head of GDP at the ONS.

Mr Morgan added: “Business investment, coupled with growing consumer spending fuelled by rising household income, and a strong performance in the dominant service industries, kept the economy expanding broadly in line with its historic average.”

GDP growth was not revised in either direction from an initial estimate of 0.5 per cent, the release on Friday said.

Business investment covers the creation of new non-financial assets such as buildings, machinery and intellectual property.

“Uncertainty indicators ahead of the referendum and in the immediate aftermath were pointing to the kind of uncertainty that would lead corporates to hold back a bit,” said Peter Dixon, UK economist at Commerzbank. But he added that it was “too early to declare victory” because companies take a long time to adjust their investment decisions.

On Wednesday the Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces independent forecasts for the UK government, published a forecast that reductions in business investment would reduce the country’s long-term economic potential by 1.1 per cent by 2018. This prompted anger among pro-Leave politicians, who accused the OBR of producing “another utter doom and gloom scenario” and called its forecasts worthless.

Defenders of the OBR fought back by pointing out that many of its predictions were noticeably more positive than those made by other bodies, including the Treasury.

For the third quarter the rest of the increase in GDP was explained by household consumption increasing 0.7 per cent, government consumption growing by 0.4 per cent and the UK’s trade deficit narrowing slightly compared with the previous quarter.

However, big swings in the amount of gold held by British households and companies rather than trade in other goods and services accounted for the improvement in the trade balance. This is a very volatile part of GDP and unlikely to be related to any fundamental change in the economy.

Employee compensation — wages, pension contributions and in-kind payments — increased 0.7 per cent, unadjusted for inflation. This was the biggest contributor to growth in incomes. Corporate profits rose 0.2 per cent.

The index of services, which was published the same day, showed growth in the sector had kept pace with recent trends. Services account for about 80 per cent of the UK’s economic output.

 

UK economic growth

Business investment boots UK economic growth after Brexit vote.

Expansion beats forecasts though many decisions were taken before EU referendum.

 

Better than expected business investment and consumer spending drove UK economic growth in the three months following the EU referendom, according to detaild figures published by the Office for National Statistics.

 

Business investment increased 0.9 per cent in third quarter of 2016 compared with the privious three months, instead of a consensus prediction of a 1 per cent decline.

 

 

Business investment has been at the center of the debates about how the UK economy will be affected by the Brexit vote, with economists expecting companies to slow their investment becuse of uncertinty about future trade arrengements. there was no evidence of this in the third quater,however.

 

"Investment by  business held up well in the immediate aftermath of the EU refrendum, though it's likely most of those investment decisions were taken before polling day," said Darren Morgan, head of GDP at the ONS.

 

Mr morgan added: "Business investment, coupled with growing consumer spending fuelled by rising household incom, snd strong performancse in the dominant service industries, kept the economy expanding broadly on line with historic average."

 

GDP growth was not revised in either direction from an initial estimate of 0.5 per cent, the release on Friday said. Business investment covers the creation of new non-financial assets such as buildings,  machinary and intellectual property.

 

"Uncertainty  indicators ahead of the referendum and in the immediate aftermath were pointing to the kind of uncertainty yhat would lead corporates to hold back a bit," said Peter Dixon, UK economist at Commerzbank. But hu added that it was too early todeclare Victory" because companies take a long time to adjust their investment decisions.

 

On Wednesday the Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces independent Forecasts for the UK governament, published a forcast that reductions in business investment would reduce the county's long-term economic potential by 1.1 per cent by 2018. This prompted anger among pro-Leave politicians, who accused the OBR of producing "aother utter doom and gloom scenario" and called its forcasts worthless.

 

Defenders of the OBR fought back pointing out that many of its predictions were noticeably more positive than those made by  other bodies, including the Treasury.

 

For the third quater the rest of in crease in GDP was explained by  household consumption increasing 0.7 per cent, government consumption growing 0.4 per cen, and UK's trade deficit narrowing slightly compared with the previous quarter.

 

However, big swings in the amount of gold held by Briritish household and companies rather than trade in other goods and services accounted for the improvement in the trade balance.

 

This is a very volatile part of GDP and unlikely to be related any fundrmental change in the economy.

 

Employee compensation - wages, pension, contributions and in-kind payments - increased 0.7 per cent,

unadjusted  for inflation. This was the biggest contributor to growth in incomes. Corporate profits rose o.2 per cent.

 

The index of services, which was published the same day, showed

growth in the sector had kept pace with recent trends.

Services account for about 80 per cent of the UK's economic output.

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