トランプ氏就任 米国第一主義 国益最優先

January 23, 2017

1月20日、第45代大統領にドナルド・トランプ氏が就任。就任演説では『米国第一主義』を力説、ついでホワイトハウスのホームページに6つの方針が打ち出された。

 

日本の報道では「環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)の離脱と北米自由貿易協定(NAFTA)の再交渉」が一番にクローズアップされて報道されている。

実際は、「エネルギー政策」、「外交政策」、「雇用と経済成長」、「国防」、「治安」、「通商政策」の順で記載され、最後の通商政策の中で「TPP離脱」と「NAFTA再交渉」がわずか一行記載されている。

 

いずれにせよ、TPPは現実に実現している制度ではなく交渉段階にある動き。米国が離脱して構想が消えたとしても、将来的な世界経済の発展に影響は幾分あるだろうが、この数年の経済指標には全く影響はない。一方、NAFTAの再交渉は2国間での貿易交渉。これがカナダ、メキシコのみならず日本へ波及してきた時に、輸出に関税をかけられるような事態になると日本にとっては大打撃である。

 

6つの政策方針に記載されている「エネルギー政策」について言うと、「アメリカ国民が利用するエネルギーのコストを下げ、アメリカの資源を最大限に活用し、海外から輸入される石油に依存しない政策を約束する」とし、「有害で不必要な温暖化対策は撤廃することを約束する。そうすることで、アメリカ人労働者の賃金を向こう7年間で300億ドル増やすことができる」として、アメリカ国内でのシェールオイルなどの開発を積極的に進めるとアピールしている。賃金は国民最大の関心事ですから国民に対しては強力な発言かもしれない。

 

これに少し関連することですがパナマ運河は今までよりも大きなタンカーが通れるよう運河の幅の拡張をしている。米国のテキサス州からのシェールガス等が太平洋の国々に提供できる時間がすこぶる短縮される。運河と聞くと時代錯誤のような気もづるが、実はこの経済効果は計り知れない。米国に取っても、日本に取ってもプラスの要因である。

 IMF(国際通貨基金)も米国の経済成長予測を2017、18年と引き上げている。政策方針はもちろん、トランプ氏の発言がどうあれ日本経済にとって下振れ要因は上振れ要因に比べてはるかに少ない。

 

 今、一番懸念されるのはEU。英国メイ首相がEU離脱を正式に宣言したが市場への影響はほとんどなかった。市場はすでに織り込み済みで、ソフトランディングか、ハードランディングかに注目があっただけのようで、結果ハードだったため幾分株価が下がったにすぎなかった。

 しかし、6月のフランス大統領選はそうはかない。国民戦線が勝利することによってフランスのEU離脱が現実のものとなると、イタリアもそれに続く可能性が大である。そうなるとドイツ一国ではEUを守れない。EU崩壊。世界経済へのインパクトは計り知れない状況となる。

 

【参考に米国経済をまとめてみると】

  • 現状の米国経済はGDP成長率3%へと回帰中

  • 新たな大幅減税、大規模な財政投資を行うことで4%成長も可能

  • 一方で景気の拡大は金融政策の転換をもたらし、2017年度中に短期金利を3回引き上げることなど、従来の量的金融緩和政策が終焉

  • 景気の回復により企業業績は向上し、株式市場にはプラスに働くが、一方金利の上昇によるマイナス効果もあることを考慮しても、総合的に見れば2017・18年度の米国の市場は堅調が見込まれる。

     

    【以下、White house HPからの引用】

An America First Energy Plan

Energy is an essential part of American life and a staple of the world economy. The Trump Administration is committed to energy policies that lower costs for hardworking Americans and maximize the use of American resources, freeing us from dependence on foreign oil.

For too long, we’ve been held back by burdensome regulations on our energy industry. President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule. Lifting these restrictions will greatly help American workers, increasing wages by more than $30 billion over the next 7 years.

Sound energy policy begins with the recognition that we have vast untapped domestic energy reserves right here in America. The Trump Administration will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution to bring jobs and prosperity to millions of Americans. We must take advantage of the estimated $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, especially those on federal lands that the American people own. We will use the revenues from energy production to rebuild our roads, schools, bridges and public infrastructure. Less expensive energy will be a big boost to American agriculture, as well.

The Trump Administration is also committed to clean coal technology, and to reviving America’s coal industry, which has been hurting for too long.

In addition to being good for our economy, boosting domestic energy production is in America’s national security interest. President Trump is committed to achieving energy independence from the OPEC cartel and any nations hostile to our interests. At the same time, we will work with our Gulf allies to develop a positive energy relationship as part of our anti-terrorism strategy.

Lastly, our need for energy must go hand-in-hand with responsible stewardship of the environment. Protecting clean air and clean water, conserving our natural habitats, and preserving our natural reserves and resources will remain a high priority. President Trump will refocus the EPA on its essential mission of protecting our air and water.

A brighter future depends on energy policies that stimulate our economy, ensure our security, and protect our health. Under the Trump Administration’s energy policies, that future can become a reality.

America First Foreign Policy

The Trump Administration is committed to a foreign policy focused on American interests and American national security.

Peace through strength will be at the center of that foreign policy. This principle will make possible a stable, more peaceful world with less conflict and more common ground.

Defeating ISIS and other radical Islamic terror groups will be our highest priority. To defeat and destroy these groups, we will pursue aggressive joint and coalition military operations when necessary. In addition, the Trump Administration will work with international partners to cut off funding for terrorist groups, to expand intelligence sharing, and to engage in cyberwarfare to disrupt and disable propaganda and recruiting.

Next, we will rebuild the American military. Our Navy has shrunk from more than 500 ships in 1991 to 275 in 2016. Our Air Force is roughly one third smaller than in 1991. President Trump is committed to reversing this trend, because he knows that our military dominance must be unquestioned.

Finally, in pursuing a foreign policy based on American interests, we will embrace diplomacy. The world must know that we do not go abroad in search of enemies, that we are always happy when old enemies become friends, and when old friends become allies.

The world will be more peaceful and more prosperous with a stronger and more respected America.

 

Trade Deals Working For All Americans

For too long, Americans have been forced to accept trade deals that put the interests of insiders and the Washington elite over the hard-working men and women of this country. As a result, blue-collar towns and cities have watched their factories close and good-paying jobs move overseas, while Americans face a mounting trade deficit and a devastated manufacturing base.

With a lifetime of negotiating experience, the President understands how critical it is to put American workers and businesses first when it comes to trade. With tough and fair agreements, international trade can be used to grow our economy, return millions of jobs to America’s shores, and revitalize our nation’s suffering communities.

This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.

In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses.

To carry out his strategy, the President is appointing the toughest and smartest to his trade team, ensuring that Americans have the best negotiators possible. For too long, trade deals have been negotiated by, and for, members of the Washington establishment. President Trump will ensure that on his watch, trade policies will be implemented by and for the people, and will put America first.

By fighting for fair but tough trade deals, we can bring jobs back to America’s shores, increase wages, and support U.S. manufacturing.

 

Bringing Back Jobs And Growth

 

 

Since the recession of 2008, American workers and businesses have suffered through the slowest economic recovery since World War II. The U.S. lost nearly 300,000 manufacturing jobs during this period, while the share of Americans in the work force plummeted to lows not seen since the 1970s, the national debt doubled, and middle class got smaller. To get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4 percent annual economic growth.

The plan starts with pro-growth tax reform to help American workers and businesses keep more of their hard-earned dollars. The President’s plan will lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code, and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the world. Fixing a tax code that is outdated, overly complex, and too onerous will unleash America’s economy, creating millions of new jobs and boosting economic growth.

As a lifelong job-creator and businessman, the President also knows how important it is to get Washington out of the way of America’s small businesses, entrepreneurs, and workers. In 2015 alone, federal regulations cost the American economy more than $2 trillion. That is why the President has proposed a moratorium on new federal regulations and is ordering the heads of federal agencies and departments to identify job-killing regulations that should be repealed.

With decades of deal-making experience, the President also understands how critical it is to negotiate the best possible trade deals for the United States. By renegotiating existing trade deals, and taking a tough stance on future ones, we will ensure that trade agreements bring good-paying jobs to our shores and support American manufacturing, the backbone of our economy. The President plans to show America’s trading partners that we mean business by ensuring consequences for countries that engage in illegal or unfair trade practices that hurt American workers.

By standing side-by-side with America’s workers and businesses, the President’s policies will unleash economic growth, create 25 million new jobs, and help Make America Great Again.

 

Making Our Military Strong Again

Our men and women in uniform are the greatest fighting force in the world and the guardians of American freedom. That’s why the Trump Administration will rebuild our military and do everything it can to make sure our veterans get the care they deserve.

Our military needs every asset at its disposal to defend America. We cannot allow other nations to surpass our military capability. The Trump Administration will pursue the highest level of military readiness.

President Trump will end the defense sequester and submit a new budget to Congress outlining a plan to rebuild our military. We will provide our military leaders with the means to plan for our future defense needs.

We will also develop a state-of-the-art missile defense system to protect against missile-based attacks from states like Iran and North Korea.

Cyberwarfare is an emerging battlefield, and we must take every measure to safeguard our national security secrets and systems. We will make it a priority to develop defensive and offensive cyber capabilities at our U.S. Cyber Command, and recruit the best and brightest Americans to serve in this crucial area.

Let us never forget that our military is comprised of heroic people. We must also ensure that we have the best medical care, education and support for our military service members and their families – both when they serve, and when they return to civilian life.

We will get our veterans the care they need wherever and whenever they need it. There should be no more long drives. No more wait lists or scheduling backlogs. No more excessive red tape. Just the care and support our veterans have earned through sacrifice and service to our country. The Trump Administration will transform the Department of Veterans Affairs to meet the needs of 21st century service members and of our female veterans. Our reforms will begin with firing the corrupt and incompetent VA executives who let our veterans down, modernizing the bureaucracy, and empowering the doctors and nurses to ensure our veterans receive the best care available in a timely manner.

Under the Trump Administration, America will meet its commitments to our veterans.

 

Standing Up For Our Law Enforcement Community

One of the fundamental rights of every American is to live in a safe community. A Trump Administration will empower our law enforcement officers to do their jobs and keep our streets free of crime and violence. The Trump Administration will be a law and order administration. President Trump will honor our men and women in uniform and will support their mission of protecting the public. The dangerous anti-police atmosphere in America is wrong. The Trump Administration will end it.

The Trump Administration is committed to reducing violent crime. In 2015, homicides increased by 17% in America’s fifty largest cities. That’s the largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by 50 percent. There were thousands of shootings in Chicago last year alone.

Our country needs more law enforcement, more community engagement, and more effective policing.

Our job is not to make life more comfortable for the rioter, the looter, or the violent disrupter. Our job is to make life more comfortable for parents who want their kids to be able to walk the streets safely. Or the senior citizen waiting for a bus. Or the young child walking home from school.

Supporting law enforcement means supporting our citizens’ ability to protect themselves. We will uphold Americans’ Second Amendment rights at every level of our judicial system.

President Trump is committed to building a border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities. He is dedicated to enforcing our border laws, ending sanctuary cities, and stemming the tide of lawlessness associated with illegal immigration.

Supporting law enforcement also means deporting illegal aliens with violent criminal records who have remained within our borders.

It is the first duty of government to keep the innocent safe, and President Donald Trump will fight for the safety of every American, and especially those Americans who have not known safe neighborhoods for a very long time.

 

Trade Deals Working For All Americans

For too long, Americans have been forced to accept trade deals that put the interests of insiders and the Washington elite over the hard-working men and women of this country. As a result, blue-collar towns and cities have watched their factories close and good-paying jobs move overseas, while Americans face a mounting trade deficit and a devastated manufacturing base.

With a lifetime of negotiating experience, the President understands how critical it is to put American workers and businesses first when it comes to trade. With tough and fair agreements, international trade can be used to grow our economy, return millions of jobs to America’s shores, and revitalize our nation’s suffering communities.

This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.

In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses.

To carry out his strategy, the President is appointing the toughest and smartest to his trade team, ensuring that Americans have the best negotiators possible. For too long, trade deals have been negotiated by, and for, members of the Washington establishment. President Trump will ensure that on his watch, trade policies will be implemented by and for the people, and will put America first.

By fighting for fair but tough trade deals, we can bring jobs back to America’s shores, increase wages, and support U.S. manufacturing.

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